Gusting 41 knots!

As you can imagine, weather is pretty front and centre in our daily thinking (then food!). We have to take as many sources as we can, including visual where we are. At the moment (GMT+12 7/12) we are experiencing moderately cloudy skies, 3.2 knots of wind from the S and so we are now motor saling. This has pretty much been the case for 24 hours, save that the wind yesterday was coming from the N.

We then downloaded the forecasts from the web, which shows a very large Tropical low, expected to form into a Tropical storm in the next day or so more than 700m N of us. It’s that that accounts for our wind hole.

Imagine our confusion when we download the ARC weather forecast which reads:

Expect gale force SSW’ly to SW’ly winds to develop in grid JJ through the end of today, gusting to near tropical storm force thereafter through the 09th. Near gale force winds can be expected on grid PP as S’ly to SW’lys through the forecast period while bear gale force SW’lys to W’lys can be expected in grid QQ through the forecast period.

We are in QQ.

So what’s the more detailed QQ forecast?

QQ FORECAST:
07/06 GMT(T + 0): WINDS SSW-WSW(203 – 248) 14-23G29KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS
NNE-ENE 6-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY REDUCED VIS. SCATTERED
SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM N @ 0.3KTS.
07/18 GMT(T + 12): WINDS WSW-WNW(248 – 293) 26-35G41KTS. SEAS 5-7 SWELLS
N-NE 6-9FT (5SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS
FROM N / WEAKKTS.
08/06 GMT(T + 24): WINDS WSW-WNW(248 – 293) 12-21G25KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS
N-NE 5-8FT (8SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS
FROM WNW @ 0.3KTS.
08/18 GMT(T + 36): WINDS SW-W(225 – 270) 12-21G26KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NNE
8-11FT (9SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM
NW @ 0.5KTS.
09/06 GMT(T + 48): WINDS SW-W(225 – 270) 16-25G29KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NW-N
11-14FT (10SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM
NNW @ 0.6KTS.

So overnight last night we were forecast to have 14-23 gusting 29 knots and for lunch we can expect 26 – 35 knots gusting 41!

Not.

If this was an isolated anomalous forecast we may be more concerned, but we have had similar forecasts for much of the passage. We are smack bang in the middle of weather zone QQ and so we have lost faith in this source. We emailed a friend in a boat 500 miles behind us. He was supposed to be in big winds yesterday. He motored all day!

Admittedly we have had gusts of 30kn in a few squalls, but they are transient with the winds returning then to 3-5 knots.

So we have calculated, recalculated and checked again our fuel consumption and range. We calculate that we have 265l of fuel left (conservatively). Running at 1000 revs we can cover 2.1 nm/l which gives us a range of 564m. Currently we are 485 m away from St Lucia. That would leave us a safety factor of 40l of fuel. With motor sailing, the engine creates a boat wind itself (apparent wind) and so instead of cruising at 3.2 knots, we are cruising at between 4-5 knots. 485 miles divided by 4.2 knots (most conservative) equates to 135 hours. If we run the engine for 135 hours, at a fuel consumption of 1.5l we should use 201 l, leaving us 65 l as a safety factor.

Follow all of that?!!

So that’s what our crew meeting last night agreed upon. We will motor from now on. Now obviously 26-35 knots of wind would speed that up somewhat, but might make dinner a bit more uncomfortable!

Talking of which, Mahi Mahi pasta bake. Wow. Just enough garlic and chili to make the fish outstanding. Tonight, fish, chips and minted mushy peas. Ok not chips, but baked new potatoes!

A few little boat jobs completed. Another book finished, a little resistance exercise and then relax!

Ps. Thanks so much everyone for your supportive and helpful comments. We love them all.

Sue’s note: I wasn’t sure weather to correct bear winds to bare winds, no idea which it is, but both sound a little unnerving to me!